Lake Erie Conservative

thoughtful discussion(s) about issue(s)

Posts Tagged ‘sample size’

… It is One of Many Problems [#Miz Hillary][#voter support]…

Posted by paulfromwloh on Wednesday,July 20th,2016

.. you wonder why Miz Hillary is trying the Obama tactic of working to irradiate his opponent ? Guess why ?? ..

.. if these polling results are right [and they usually are] , Miz Hillary is having loads of problems attracting political support . Not only that , those problems are not being reflected in the LameStreamMedia polls ..

.. she is having great trouble attracting the young , Latinos . Worse than that , she is having a great deal of trouble getting over 55 % support of the Jewish vote . The Dems have been blind to demographic , philosophical , and theological changes in modern Judaism . Those changes show in Trump attracting almost 38% support of Jews . If that continues , it will not endanger Miz Hillry in NY , but it will in NJ , and in Florida ..

.. [h/t — Newsmax.com]..
.. [link] to the blog post news ..

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… What to Look for in Polling ?? [#the audience]…

Posted by paulfromwloh on Wednesday,May 4th,2016

.. there are things that you can llok for in a poll to determine if it is indeed worthwhile ….

.. [-] sample size — the larger the sample , the better ..

.. [-] a tracking poll — not a bad idea . It is a poll that is done over several days . It is also done that way for a long period of time by the pollster , in order to ensure better comparison and reliability ..

.. [h/t — Newsmax.com]..
.. [link] to the blog post ..

.. [-] a poll with ” All Adults ” is no good . There is a significant chunk of adults that do not register to vote , much less actually vote itself . So ignore this stuff , it is worthless ..
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.. [-] registered voters — a decent poll , but others are much better . Once people register to vote , there is a significant pocket of voters that do not bother to vote[ever] at all ..

.. [-] likely voters — these voters are the most likely to actually vote ..

.. [-] very likely voters — these voters are the very most likely of all voters to actually vote …

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… Uh – Oh [Good News for Monica Wehby in Oregon] …

Posted by paulfromwloh on Sunday,May 4th,2014

.. she is doing very nicely , thank you ..

.. a couple of weeks ago , she was trailing by 12 points . Now , she leads , but inside the margin of error ..

.. [h/t — hotair.com]..
.. [link] to the blog news ..

.. it is now the danger zone for the incumbent . Not only is Jeff Merkely tied to a colossal mess in the CoverOregon debacle , not only is he below the 50% threshhold , he is down towards the 40.0% threshhold , and that is among registered voters

.. Ouch ! ..

.. there are 14% of the voters that are undecided , and nearly 18.0% of female voters . Jeff Merkely is not yet a Dead Man Walking , but he is in some very , very , very serious political hot water …

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