Lake Erie Conservative

thoughtful discussion(s) about issue(s)

Posts Tagged ‘economy’

… What Economic Growth [#government rules]…

Posted by paulfromwloh on Thursday,September 15th,2016

.. how do you expect the economy to grow …

branco cartoon (X-mas ball - and - chain)

.. [h/t — ComicallyIncorrect.com]..
.. [link] to the cartoon ..

.. with a ball – and – chain attached to the economy ‘ s collective effort to growth and thrive ?!?! …

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… The Economy did What ?? [#bombed]…

Posted by paulfromwloh on Monday,June 30th,2014

.. no , it was not just bad , folks .

.. it was real bad .

.. the original estimate was for a 1.0% gain ? Nope .

.. next , first revision was up only 0.1% ? Nope .

.. [h/t — HotAir]..
.. [link] to the blog piece ..

.. next call , second revision was down 1.0% ? Nope .

.. final call , final revision , down 2.9% . Ouch …

.. does that stink ? you had better believe that it does …

.. and , no , it was not due to bad weather . When the economy has enough mo ‘ , the weather will slow it a little , but not all that much . It tells you how dense the ObamaCraps have been that they can try to blame the weather , and that excuse is full of bull[bleep] …

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — decreased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the first quarter of 2014 according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2013, real GDP increased 2.6 percent. …

Real GDP declined 2.9 percent in the first quarter, after increasing 2.6 percent in the fourth. This downturn in the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected a downturn in exports, a larger decrease in private inventory investment, a deceleration in PCE, and downturns in nonresidential fixed investment and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in federal government spending.

This time the news is bad across the board. Exports dropped 8.9% in Q1, a huge drop from 2013, which wasn’t exactly spectacular either. Real final sales of domestic product dropped 1.3%, where in earlier estimates it had remained in positive territory. Business investment also fell:

Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 1.2 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 5.7 percent in the fourth. Nonresidential structures decreased 7.7 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.8 percent. Equipment decreased 2.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 10.9 percent. Intellectual property products increased 6.3 percent, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 4.2 percent, compared with a decrease of 7.9 percent.

Reuters noted immediately that this is not just weather-related:

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday gross domestic product fell at a 2.9 percent annual rate, the economy’s worst performance in five years, instead of the 1.0 percent pace it had reported last month.

While the economy’s woes have been largely blamed on an unusually cold winter, the magnitude of the revisions suggest other factors at play beyond the weather. Growth has now been revised down by a total of 3.0 percentage points since the government’s first estimate was published in April, which had the economy expanding at a 0.1 percent rate.

The difference between the second and third estimates was the largest on records going back to 1976, the Commerce Department said.

Underscoring that is the May durable-goods report, which showed a contraction of 1.0% despite having a month of mild-to-good weather:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May decreased $2.4 billion or 1.0 percent to $238.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following three consecutive monthly increases, followed a 0.8 percent April increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following three consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $2.3 billion or 3.0 percent to $74.4 billion.

Again, business investment signals even rougher times ahead:

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in May decreased $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $82.1 billion. Shipments decreased $0.5 billion or 0.7 percent to $75.9 billion. Unfilled orders increased $6.2 billion or 0.9 percent to $662.7 billion. Inventories increased $2.5 billion or 1.4 percent to $181.7 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in May decreased $4.0 billion or 31.4 percent to $8.8 billion. Shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 2.3 percent to $9.4 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.6 billion or 0.4 percent to $158.9 billion. Inventories increased slightly or 0.1 percent to $23.6 billion.

This comes as Barack Obama planned yet another “pivot” to the economy, in the hopes of distracting from bad news in foreign policy and at the VA and IRS. The previously poor Q1 results already had the White House on the defensive, which they tried to brush off as weather-related and anomalous. Clearly, neither is the case. The economy has run aground on Obama’s own policies, and we’ll be lucky to hit positive growth at all this year with the bad Q1 number looming over everything. That calls into question all of Obama’s budget projections, which were based on irrationally sunny projections of economic growth this year and the next few years.

We’ve been complaining about stagnation ever since the June 2009 technical recovery. Now we may look at stagnation with some nostalgia in the months ahead…

.. If the Second Quarter ends up in negative territory , then that is a recession , no matter how you slice it …

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… While We are Not Headed For a Recession [I think] …

Posted by paulfromwloh on Saturday,June 14th,2014

.. we are not headed for a robust recovery , either ..

.. we have a bunch of dummies in the DemoCrap party , and especially in the ObamaCrap White House . These morons do not have a clue about how the markets work . If you want to create sustained positive growth , as Ronaldus Magnus did , JFK did , Dubya did , and Greenspan [no , not Clinton] did , what do you really have to create ?? …

.. [h/t — HotAir]..
.. [link] to the blog post ..

.. simple …. investment . why investment …. take a look at this snippet from this post from HotAir on the GDP report , and you will see why …

For the first time in three years, the American economy contracted over the course of a quarter. In the interim report on GDP, the BEA estimates that the US economy shrunk by a full point in 2014 Q1, a downward revision of the advance estimate of 0.1% growth:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — decreased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the first quarter according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, real GDP was estimated to have increased 0.1 percent. With this second estimate for the first quarter, the decline in private inventory investment was larger than previously estimated (see “Revisions” on page 3).

The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a positive contribution from personal consumption expenditures. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

.. LEC again : …

… personal consumption [consumer spending] is a big part of the economy . However , it cannot do all of the heavy lifting all by itself . Especially right now . Given the piss poor job market , folks , and the craziness that is ObamaCrapCare , you really should not expect growth to be growing great guns …

.. if this continues , then you could see some serious cost – cutting kick in , in  terms of layoffs in the job market . Then , when or if that happens , the unemployment rate takes off , and you get a  recession . Which for the DummyCraps would be occurring at the worst possible time ..

.. a recession during Obama ‘ s second term would finally shut him up . His Lordship cannot and should not expect to try a re – run of his first – term antics . The markets will not let him ,especially with inflation picking up . Hopefully , then , some of the loonie – leftie business types will sit down with His Lordship and try to make sure that that Damn Idiot gets religion on investment and its role in the economy …

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… It is Time to Apply the Magnitsky Bill …

Posted by paulfromwloh on Monday,March 10th,2014

.. if the Russians want normal trade relations , they had better behave like civilized humans ….

.. if not , then crack down on them . Hard .

.. it is time to apply the Magnitsky Bill . It was passed as a part of the passage of normal trade relations with Russia in 2012 . Those relations obviously should be suspended , for the near term . In order to get the attention of Putin and his cronies (the oligarchs) , Magnitsky provisions should be applied to those people who pal around with Putin . All of them that can be identified …

.. Also , if possible , the provisions of the Magnitsky bill should be strengthened to include companies that do business in the United States . Such restrictions are similar to what are provided for in the Helms – Burton Trade with Cuba Act …

.. and if Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin] keeps up with his antics , reintroduce a 21st – century version of Jackson – Vanik . Jackson – Vanik provided for evaluation of human rights in both Russia and the old Soviet Union . It applied to both . It should still , as a deterrent …

.. [h/t — Wikipedia.org]..

.. [link] to the article ..

.. [h/t — NationalReview]..

.. [link] to the article on the bill …

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