Lake Erie Conservative

thoughtful discussion(s) about issue(s)

… What Do You Think [Senate Predictions] …

Posted by paulfromwloh on Monday,March 31st,2014

.. now that I know of Nate Silver ‘ s new website …

.. and , that he is free of the New York Slimes (thank God) …

.. I will be able to bring you all more regular sctuff from him …

.. [h/t — fivethirtyeight.com]..
.. [link] to Nate ‘ s predictions …

.. here are Nate ‘ s predictions (I hope) …

fivethirtyeight.com prediction (03232014)

.. got it ! ..

.. I will tell you what I think …

.. [-] Alaska — Mark Begich got in by a quirk . Any later , by about 2 to 3 weeks , and Ted Stevens wins in a blowout after the outrage from the miscarriage of justice . Begich has tried to act as a moderate , but he is only a tool in Dingy Harry ‘  s shed …. most likely Lt. Gov. Mead  Treadwell will be the GOP nominee … will have big advantage , especially with former Governor Sarah Palin ‘ s endorsement (which he will likely  get) , because she is still enormously popular , and still lives in Alaska …

.. try 55%..

.. Colorado — Udall vs Congressman Cory Gardiner … Udall has been running well under 50% in the polls , even with his name , which is usually golden or silver in the West … the Governor ‘ s race will help tip this one one way or the other . John Hickenweenie is enormously unpopular , and will not have an easy time winning re – election .

.. also , the Dems will have trouble holding on to either chamber of the legislature , especially the Colorado Senate . It will likely flip , and the CO House might , as well

.. try 45% …

.. [-] Oregon — Dr. Monica Wehby , a pediatrician , is likely to be the GOP nominee up here . Jeff Merkely does not have a lot of $$ in the bank , yet . Also , he is not the ruthless politician that Ron Wyden (the senior senator) is . Also , the Cover Oregon disaster is getting enormous press . John Kithaber , also a doctor , is in real deep trouble , so Merkely will have no cover from the top of the ticket .

.. Also , the legislature is very much in play , as are two of the congressional seats held by Democrats . The Oregon House is very likely to go Red , and it might bring the state Senate along with it . The governor ‘ s race will get interesting , especially since a wealthy former Republican state rep , one who blew the whistle on Cover Oregon , is likely to be Kitz ‘ s opponent …

.. try something like 45% …

.. [-] Iowa — If Tom Harkin was running , you could forget this race .  He is gone ,so it makes a big difference . There is a barnburner of a race in the GOP primary . Congresscritter Bruce Braley is the likely Dem nominee . Braley should be clearly favoured , but is not . Terry Branstad is popular , and is running for  re –  election . His popularity will help rub off on the GOP , and should help make this one an election night barnburner …

.. try 48% …

.. [-] New Hampshire — former Massachusettes Senator Scott Brown is the all-but-inevitable GOP nominee . Jeanne Shaheen is still popular , but is still a freshwoman senator . Her vote for ObamaCrapCare will do her great damage . John Lynch is gone , so that helps . The congressional races will help , because both are rematches , and the ObamaCrapCare rollout has been nothing short of disastrous . One or both will flip back to the GOP , as will one or both chambers of the legislature ….

.. try 35% for now , but will develop …

.. [-] Michigan — Terri Lynn Land is leading in the polls , is better known , and has a great deal more money , and has been raising much more money , quarter for quarter , than her likely DemoCrap opponent , congresscritter Gary Peters . Various interest groups ads ,  especially Julie Boonstra ‘ s are pinning Peters to Obama . Michigan is more GOP , especially in off years , than most people think …

.. try 50% …

… to add it up — add in Michigan and Alaska , and for me , add in Oregon . I think that the Cover Oregon stink bomb will leave a big mess over everyone associated with it , including Jeff Merkely , who is a political lightweight . So , add it in as well .

.. GOP — plus nine !

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