Lake Erie Conservative

thoughtful discussion(s) about issue(s)

… I believe that Boehner has the Votes …

Posted by paulfromwloh on Monday,October 7th,2013

.. what am I saying ?

.. first , Pelosi does not have the votes . The DemoCraps only have about 200 members in the current House , and their numbers are unlikely to go up all that much . Then , you do figure that the Dems have about 25 to 30 moderates left in their caucus .

.. That many ? Yes , that many . I would be willing to bet as many as 10 to 15 of them will not vote for a CR , possibly 20 . That means (since 218 is a majority) , the DemoCraps need nearly 30 votes . Yes , nearly 30 votes . Why that many .

218 – (202 – 15) = 31 ; or 218 – 187 = 31

Official portrait of United States House Speak...

Official portrait of United States House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio). (Photo credit: Wikipedia)


.. 31 votes . It will take that many votes to make it . it is the votes of the moderates who vote against the CR , plus the votes to reach a majority , plus a 1 or 2 vote safety margin (considering the machinations a House majority can pull) ..

.. why ?

[-] there are not that many moderates in the House GOP anymore . There are some , but not many .

[-] they are loyal enough to Boehner to not cross him on a vote that is this important ,

[-] a number of them are or have been in leadership positions , such as subcommittee chairman or committee chairman . They want to be again , and realize crossing a sitting Speaker of the House is not a way to get back into that position . Especially since , these days , the Speaker appoints (with caucus approval , which is ususally a formality) the committee and subcommittee chairs .

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