Lake Erie Conservative

thoughtful discussion(s) about issue(s)

… Do Senate Dems have the votes for the “Nuclear Option ? ” …

Posted by paulfromwloh on Tuesday,June 18th,2013

English: Kay Hagan, U.S. senator from North Ca...

English: Kay Hagan, U.S. senator from North Carolina (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

.. a.k.a. , does Dingy Harry have a Death Wish ?

.. that damn fool just might .

.. it is simple math. Lautenberg ’ s death means Dems now only have 54 votes in the

Senate. (His temporary Republican replacement can’t be expected to back rules reform.) Aides who are tracking the vote count tell me that Senator Carl Levin (a leading opponent of the “nuke option” when it was ruled out at the beginning of the year, leading to the watered down bipartisan filibuster reform compromise)  is all but certain to oppose any rules change by simple majority .

.. If Dems lose those four votes, that would bring them down to 50. And, aides note, that would mean Biden’s tie-breaking vote would be required to get back up to the 51 required for a simple Senate majority. That’s an awfully thin margin for error.

.. How precarious , indeed . How about getting anything done , at all . Any business to get done in the Senate requires the at least grudging consent of the minority party . If you want to piss them off that much , you are asking for trouble .

.. And political payback . And , revenge . Large . and , Small .

.. They will not back down , Greggy . Count on a block on Perez , especially with the Supreme Court granting cert in the Mount Holly case . Cordray will be blocked , due to the power grab by POTUS on the recess appointments . As well , the other gal , at the E.P.A. , for obvious reasons to break the back of the EcoSocialists .

.. I do not think that Reid has the votes . Not now . Begich is a No . ditto Pryor . Baucus is a wildcard . Heitkamp is going to be under enormous pressure . ditto Donnelly , and Kay Hagan . Johnson is a possible No . Carl Levin , of all people , is

a possible No . Angus King , as you might think , is a wild card . He is independently wealthy , and $$ pressure will not work .

.. Lautenberg’s passing has put the Dems’ ability to change the rules in peril, it has also increased the potential for more brinksmanship — and more miscalculation. Anyone who is telling you they know how this is going to end is lying to you.

.. The only way to know for sure that Dingy Harry has the votes for sure , is when he calls this forward . Everyone will be in the Senate chambre . Everyone in the Senate . Yea , that includes VPOTUS in the chair .

.. and afterwards , it will be the political equivalent of thermonuclear war .

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